recito la cita desde manuel venator, de burbuja.info: Some experts even claimed to know the rules of the game. I remember one sermon. The shaven headed, black leather-jacketed professional sceptic of matters financial leaned against an ill-lit bar in Hong Kong’s Wan Chai district. There were ‘hostesses’ in fashionable déshabillé all round. This was the Grand Master’s ‘office.’ I listened as he sallied forth.
‘There are distinct phases in investment madness in emerging markets. Phase one is growth. You get a lot of foreign investment. It is mainly relo- cation of production facilities. Cheap brown people to do dirty jobs for nothing. You dig up, cut down everything you can. The locals deregulate everything because the World Bank tells them it will attract foreign invest- ment. Government-owned businesses are sold cheaply to the favoured sons and their foreign cronies. Government controls are relaxed as the foreigners tell the locals that it will create jobs and wealth.’ The Grand Master paused to take a drink.
‘In phase two, living standards improve for the fortunate. For the bulk of people nothing changes, of course. A middle class develops chasing McDonald’s and Wal-Mart consumer heaven. Property prices and shares go crazy. More and more money comes in. Local banks lend recklessly. Foreign banks lend recklessly to local banks. The foreign banks think the local banks won’t fail because of government support. Investors dive in. They talk about “growth” and “portfolio diversification”. People are excited. Prices spiral up as the tidal wave of money pours in.
‘Phase three. Costs rise to levels that make the economies uncompeti- tive. They are not cheap any more. Alas, the capitalist caravan must move on. Everything is over priced. Politicians talk bravely about the “need to move up the value chain”. They launch ambitious initiatives – the world’s tallest building, the world’s longest building, a new port in a country which has no sea access, bridges over rivers between two cities that do not exist, entire new cities! Locals bristle at any criticism. Everybody tries to shake off the opprobrium of being an emerging market nation. Talk of new para- digms becomes popular – “the Asian century”, “Asian values”.
‘Prices don’t make any rational sense. You only buy because you think you can sell it tomorrow to someone else at a higher price. You are caught in an endless spiral of higher and higher prices. Fear and greed rule financial markets. You are afraid that you might miss out. Your greed is endless. Foreigners develop a peculiar hubris. They are bulletproof. Fundamentals of value are irrelevant in this world.’ The Grand Master paused and looked around to see if everybody was paying attention. He leaned back and smiled wryly in a well-practised dramatic gesture. ‘Then, of course, kaput. It all collapses’. This was in 1995. In 1997, Asia’s run as the hottest new ‘new thing’ ended abruptly.
Other seers dispensed more worldly investment wisdom. ‘If you arrive at a country and discover limousines waiting to transfer foreign investors and their investment bankers to five star hotels, then generally speaking it is time to sell. There is a second unfailing test. If you can’t buy a good meal and a young, attractive woman for the night for less than $100, then it is time to get out.
Extraido del libro sobre "futuros y derivados" Traders, Guns & Money de Satyajit Das
recito la cita desde manuel venator, de burbuja.info:
ResponderEliminarSome experts even claimed to know the rules of the game. I remember
one sermon. The shaven headed, black leather-jacketed professional sceptic
of matters financial leaned against an ill-lit bar in Hong Kong’s Wan Chai
district. There were ‘hostesses’ in fashionable déshabillé all round. This was
the Grand Master’s ‘office.’ I listened as he sallied forth.
‘There are distinct phases in investment madness in emerging markets.
Phase one is growth. You get a lot of foreign investment. It is mainly relo-
cation of production facilities. Cheap brown people to do dirty jobs for
nothing. You dig up, cut down everything you can. The locals deregulate
everything because the World Bank tells them it will attract foreign invest-
ment. Government-owned businesses are sold cheaply to the favoured sons
and their foreign cronies. Government controls are relaxed as the foreigners
tell the locals that it will create jobs and wealth.’ The Grand Master paused
to take a drink.
‘In phase two, living standards improve for the fortunate. For the bulk
of people nothing changes, of course. A middle class develops chasing
McDonald’s and Wal-Mart consumer heaven. Property prices and shares go
crazy. More and more money comes in. Local banks lend recklessly. Foreign
banks lend recklessly to local banks. The foreign banks think the local banks
won’t fail because of government support. Investors dive in. They talk
about “growth” and “portfolio diversification”. People are excited. Prices
spiral up as the tidal wave of money pours in.
‘Phase three. Costs rise to levels that make the economies uncompeti-
tive. They are not cheap any more. Alas, the capitalist caravan must move
on. Everything is over priced. Politicians talk bravely about the “need to
move up the value chain”. They launch ambitious initiatives – the world’s
tallest building, the world’s longest building, a new port in a country which
has no sea access, bridges over rivers between two cities that do not exist,
entire new cities! Locals bristle at any criticism. Everybody tries to shake off
the opprobrium of being an emerging market nation. Talk of new para-
digms becomes popular – “the Asian century”, “Asian values”.
‘Prices don’t make any rational sense. You only buy because you think
you can sell it tomorrow to someone else at a higher price. You are caught
in an endless spiral of higher and higher prices. Fear and greed rule financial
markets. You are afraid that you might miss out. Your greed is endless.
Foreigners develop a peculiar hubris. They are bulletproof. Fundamentals
of value are irrelevant in this world.’ The Grand Master paused and looked
around to see if everybody was paying attention. He leaned back and smiled
wryly in a well-practised dramatic gesture. ‘Then, of course, kaput. It all
collapses’. This was in 1995. In 1997, Asia’s run as the hottest new ‘new
thing’ ended abruptly.
Other seers dispensed more worldly investment wisdom. ‘If you arrive at
a country and discover limousines waiting to transfer foreign investors and
their investment bankers to five star hotels, then generally speaking it is
time to sell. There is a second unfailing test. If you can’t buy a good meal
and a young, attractive woman for the night for less than $100, then it is
time to get out.
Extraido del libro sobre "futuros y derivados" Traders, Guns & Money de Satyajit Das