martes, 1 de marzo de 2011

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1 comentario:

  1. recito la cita desde manuel venator, de burbuja.info:
    Some experts even claimed to know the rules of the game. I remember
    one sermon. The shaven headed, black leather-jacketed professional sceptic
    of matters financial leaned against an ill-lit bar in Hong Kong’s Wan Chai
    district. There were ‘hostesses’ in fashionable déshabillé all round. This was
    the Grand Master’s ‘office.’ I listened as he sallied forth.

    ‘There are distinct phases in investment madness in emerging markets.
    Phase one is growth. You get a lot of foreign investment. It is mainly relo-
    cation of production facilities. Cheap brown people to do dirty jobs for
    nothing. You dig up, cut down everything you can. The locals deregulate
    everything because the World Bank tells them it will attract foreign invest-
    ment. Government-owned businesses are sold cheaply to the favoured sons
    and their foreign cronies. Government controls are relaxed as the foreigners
    tell the locals that it will create jobs and wealth.’ The Grand Master paused
    to take a drink.

    ‘In phase two, living standards improve for the fortunate. For the bulk
    of people nothing changes, of course. A middle class develops chasing
    McDonald’s and Wal-Mart consumer heaven. Property prices and shares go
    crazy. More and more money comes in. Local banks lend recklessly. Foreign
    banks lend recklessly to local banks. The foreign banks think the local banks
    won’t fail because of government support. Investors dive in. They talk
    about “growth” and “portfolio diversification”. People are excited. Prices
    spiral up as the tidal wave of money pours in.

    ‘Phase three. Costs rise to levels that make the economies uncompeti-
    tive. They are not cheap any more. Alas, the capitalist caravan must move
    on. Everything is over priced. Politicians talk bravely about the “need to
    move up the value chain”. They launch ambitious initiatives – the world’s
    tallest building, the world’s longest building, a new port in a country which
    has no sea access, bridges over rivers between two cities that do not exist,
    entire new cities! Locals bristle at any criticism. Everybody tries to shake off
    the opprobrium of being an emerging market nation. Talk of new para-
    digms becomes popular – “the Asian century”, “Asian values”.

    ‘Prices don’t make any rational sense. You only buy because you think
    you can sell it tomorrow to someone else at a higher price. You are caught
    in an endless spiral of higher and higher prices. Fear and greed rule financial
    markets. You are afraid that you might miss out. Your greed is endless.
    Foreigners develop a peculiar hubris. They are bulletproof. Fundamentals
    of value are irrelevant in this world.’ The Grand Master paused and looked
    around to see if everybody was paying attention. He leaned back and smiled
    wryly in a well-practised dramatic gesture. ‘Then, of course, kaput. It all
    collapses’. This was in 1995. In 1997, Asia’s run as the hottest new ‘new
    thing’ ended abruptly.

    Other seers dispensed more worldly investment wisdom. ‘If you arrive at
    a country and discover limousines waiting to transfer foreign investors and
    their investment bankers to five star hotels, then generally speaking it is
    time to sell. There is a second unfailing test. If you can’t buy a good meal
    and a young, attractive woman for the night for less than $100, then it is
    time to get out.


    Extraido del libro sobre "futuros y derivados" Traders, Guns & Money de Satyajit Das

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